INDO-US RELATIONS UNDER BARACK OBAMA

Stakeholders: India, USA, other countries like Pakistan and China

Background

· The election of Barack Obama as the next President of the US is a historic event. For the first time, an African-American will lead the world’s most powerful nation.

· This event is significant not just to the US but also to the rest of the world because the policies of the US have far reaching effects on global politics and economics.


Key Points

· India and the US have recently buried many of their past differences and have forged ties in various fields. Therefore, political developments in the US are especially significant to India.

· A Democrat government is likely to have a foreign policy significantly different from that of a Republican government. Areas of key interest to India would be the government’s policy on outsourcing, the Indo-US nuclear deal and the war on terror.

· Both the government of India and President George W. Bush pushed hard to get the nuclear deal signed before the term of the current Republican government ended. One of the reasons for the rush was the fear that a Democrat government would not be as supportive of the deal.

· There is a possibility that the economic crisis in the US and the massive loss of jobs may hit the outsourcing industry. A change at the helm of affairs at this point only adds to the uncertainty.

· Like the US, India also figures prominently on the hit list of terrorists. Obama’s policy on terror, especially on Pakistan and Afghanistan, would be of great interest to India.


Is Obama anti-India?

· Obama has often expressed a rather narrow view on outsourcing. In a speech delivered earlier this year, Obama called the loss of jobs due to outsourcing an “act of violence”.

· He has also announced his intentions of negating the tax cuts currently enjoyed by companies that outsource jobs and awarding them instead to companies that created jobs in the US. This could discourage many companies from outsourcing work to India.

· Though Obama voted for the Nuclear Deal, he also introduced an amendment that prevented India from building strategic fuel reserves for its imported nuclear reactors. This amendment was subsequently rejected.

· He also voted in favor of the so-called ‘killer amendments’ which would have made the deal impossible for India.

· Obama’s foreign policy is likely to renew the non-proliferation agenda and the CTBT. It could also lead to some amendments in the Indo-US nuclear deal.

· Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate and the next vice president of the US, has introduced a whopping $7.5 billion economic aid package to Pakistan over five years to improve strategic relations with that country.

· It is believed that Obama may pressurize India to resolve the Kashmir issue to ensure complete cooperation from Pakistan on the war on terror.

· Many people in Obama’s core group of advisers, such as Colin Powell, Richard Holbrooke and Madeline Albright have decidedly been hostile to India in the past. Some of them are touted to figure in Obama’s cabinet.

· Unlike Bush, Obama does not think of India as a global power. His attention would be more focused on Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.

· The Bush administration saw India as a counter to the growing threat of China. Obama is likely to be more open to the sensitivities of China and Pakistan. This could slow down the growth of relations between India and the US.


Why Obama could be good for India

· Like the two presidents before him, Obama also thinks that it is only natural for the world’s largest and oldest democracies to be allies. He understands that both countries are affected by international terrorism and plans to increase US military cooperation with India.

· There is a strong possibility that the Obama administration could include many Republicans. So, it is unlikely that Washington’s policies towards New Delhi would change dramatically.

· The growing relations between the US and India is an acknowledgement of the progress India has made, rather than a reflection of the policies of individual administrations. This is unlikely to change.

· Obama believes that Afghanistan and Pakistan are central to the war against the Al Qaeda. His administration will redouble the war efforts in these countries.

· Following up on his tough stance against Pakistan, Obama is likely to make military aid to that country conditional to its commitment to the war against terror and Al Qaeda.

· Obama has accused Pakistan of misusing the aid provided by the US to fight the war on terror to prepare for a war on India.

· Obama has indicated that he would not shy away from striking inside Pakistan to take out Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorist camps.

· He also supports democracy and socioeconomic development in Pakistan. Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan is good for India.